The projections show that in the near-term such heat extremes become much more common, irrespective of the emission scenario. By 2020, the global land area experiencing temperatures of 3-sigma or more will have doubled (covering∼10%) and by 2040 quadrupled (covering ∼20%). Over the same period, more-extreme events will emerge: 5-sigma events, which are now essentially absent, will cover a small but significant fraction(∼3%) of the global land surface by 2040. These near-term projections are practically independent of emission scenario.
The rise in the frequency of extremes becomes strongly dependent on the emission scenario only by mid-century.
Dim Coumou (1) and Alexander Robinson (1,2,3)
1 Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research—Earth System Analysis, Telegrafenberg A62/0.04, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany
2 Departamento de Astrofísica y Ciencias de la Atmósfera, Facultad de Ciencias Físicas, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, E-28040 Madrid, Spain
3 Instituto de Geociencias, UCM-CSIC, E-28040 Madrid, Spain
Dim Coumou and Alexander Robinson 2013 Environ. Res. Lett. 8 034018
© 2013 IOP Publishing Ltd
Received 11 June 2013, accepted for publication 26 July 2013
Published 14 August 2013
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